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News and Events
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October 13, 2004
George W. Bush vs. John Kerry: Who Won The Third Presidential Debate?

Third.Presidential.Debate.jpg
The Third U.S. Presidential Debate of October 13, 2004

The setting: Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ

The moderator: Bob Schieffer of CBS News

The participants: President George W. Bush, the Republican nominee, and Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee (Massachusetts)

Communications expert Bert Decker gave us his "no-spin" analysis from tonight's third and final Bush vs. Kerry Presidential Debate.

Decker's Analysis on Round Three:

Where was the eloquence?

It was there, finally, but we had to wait a long time.

In a close debate filled with detail, there is a winner, but probably not who most people might think ...

About two thirds through, bogged down in details and facts and attacks, charges and counter charges -- we finally began to get just a glimmer of some vision casting.

Not enough -- but at least some.

We wanted a taste of the future -- what we might see in the next four years.

We got too much of what we have not had, or what the faults of each candidate were.

This third debate was an opportunity for either candidate to cast a vision for the country -- with eloquence.

It was a chance to actually win this debate.

Neither quite did it.

President George Bush gets the most improved award.

Senator Kerry gets the most consistent award. He is the best debater.

Surprisingly, both did well, and yet poorly with what could have been.

They did well in that they had no gaffes -- that is no disastrous moments that would sink their campaigns.

This is tough pressure -- the campaign could ride on these debates -- and it would be particularly easy for the President to falter given his self-professed propensity to be language challenged.

But Bush didn't stumble, and Kerry didn't bumble, and both were pretty articulate.

They were spontaneous in their reactions, and if the Presidency was determined on the ability to think on one's feet, both passed.

So who won?

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presdebate.jpg Kerry vs. Bush, Round III
Kerry won tonight on verbal ability, smoothness, and attacks.

Bush won on warmth, humor and articulating values.

In the end, it comes down to the closing, which I'll cover at the end.


Behavior

Behavior is critical in these debates. "What you do speaks so loud I can't hear what you say," as Emerson would put it. Both did well.

Kerry still looks dour, and likability is so important in establishing trust that he suffers here. But he smiled often, and was consistent in good energy and poise. He looks presidential, and that has been most important for him.

Bush was equal to his second debate in energy level, which was a triumph since he is not as good behind podiums and he is better interacting with people. He did make some nervous laugh retorts, as with his "Sure hope it's not the Administration that caused that."

Slight lean to Kerry here, but considering the lower expectations on Bush, it's a draw.


Reaction shots

We all are fascinated with the reaction shots, and justifiably so. How the candidates react gives the measure of how they stand up to pressure and attack.

Both did o.k. -- not great.

No smirks or childish laughters or eye brow raises, but Kerry often had his tight lipped grin-and-bear-it look on, and Bush had his head tilted up, a bit aloof and posed. No smirks though.

Draw here too.


Issues

Outsourcing, flu vaccines, taxes, education, same sex marriage, health insurance, prescriptions from Canada, Social Security, abortion, the draft, assault weapons, affirmative action, polarized America.

We were inundated with charges and counter charges for the most part -- we got a sense of the differences, but not a clear delineation.

I personally felt more frustrated by both of these men who would seek to be the next President for the next four years -- Couldn't they be above the fray?

Draw.


Facts

We'll have to listen to the fact checkers but it seemed that Kerry put out a lot of facts that smacked of political rhetoric.

Bush was defensive, but then he's the incumbent with the record to defend.

We'll see what the fact checkers say.


Faith

Bush was at his strongest in his straightforward answer to his faith -- "It plays a big part in my life." -- and then going on to say that people of any faith are "equally American."


Humor

Bush had the advantage -- particularly with his response to the question of what he learned in being married to a strong woman.

"I learned to listen a lot," he said.

Kerry did well in his follow up too as he said he "married up." This was funny since he married a billionaire, but not all positive as people are reminded of this as perhaps a negative.


Best Lines

Bush with "You're record is such that you make Ted Kennedy the conservative Senator in Massachusetts."

Kerry with "I'm tired of politicians who talk about family values without valuing the family."


Lost Opportunities

Bush never articulated the fact that he was saddled with the economic results of the high tech stock market boom excess of the Clinton years that busted just as he took office.

He mentions that he led us out of the shortest recession ever, but he doesn't connect the dots.

Kerry never cast a vision with the specifics of what a fresh approach could do to a country saddled with a turbulent economy, political division and an unpopular war.


Closing

Bush finally cast a vision -- a picturesque vision.

Recalling a painting by Tom Lee that hangs in his home, and has a vivid picture of both the sunrise and the sunset, he said that he focuses on the sunrise, the day that is coming, not the day that is gone.

He struck a resonance here, and was as eloquent as he has ever been.

Is it too little too late however?


Bottom line

The polls might give an edge to Kerry because he is the better "intellectual" debater.

But people vote on emotion, and justify with fact.

In the end, the lean in this debate, largely because of the closing and President Bush's sincerity on the faith and marriage issues, give the emotional edge to Bush.

In a narrow call -- Bush wins.


About Bert Decker

Bert.Decker.photo.jpgLeadership Communications expert, Bert Decker has over fifty years experience in coaching, teaching, and communications.

Decker has coached business leaders like Charles Schwab, political leaders like Nancy Pelosi, athletes like Olympians Bonnie Blair and Tom Dolan, and 49ers All-Pro Brent Jones.

He has been the NBC TODAY Show's communications commentator for the Presidential Debates.

Decker is also an author and entrepreneur who has been featured in the New York Times, Business Week and 20/20.

One of his five best selling books include You've Got to Be Believed to Be Heard: Reach the First Brain to Communicate in Business and Life. About this book, Ken Blanchard, author of The Secret: What Great Leaders Know -- And Do said, "Bert Decker makes communicating come alive - a must read."

For further leadership communications skills and no-spin analysis, go to:

BertDecker.com

For the facts, go to:

FactCheck.org


To learn more about Senator Kerry, go to:

JohnKerry.com


To learn more about President Bush, go to:

GeorgeWBush.com


Inspire & Be Inspired(R).

Don't forget to vote on Tuesday, November 2nd for America's Commander in Chief.

Here's to healthy, adventuresome, soulful and Bert Decker's Method of clear communications living!

~ Jennifer King


Related Stories in Rugged Elegant Living:


Kerry vs. Bush: The First Presidential Debate of Sept. 30, 2004

Cheney vs. Edwards: The Vice-Presidential Debate of Oct. 5, 2004

Bush vs. Kerry: The Second Presidential Debate of Oct. 8, 2004

Posted by jck at October 13, 2004 11:00 PM






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