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News and Events
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October 9, 2004
The Second Presidential Debate, Bush vs. Kerry 2004: President George Bush Bounces Back

President.George.W.Bush.jpg President George W. Bush
The Second Presidential Debate of October 8, 2004

The setting: Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri

The moderator: Charles Gibson, ABC's host of Good Morning America

The nominees: President George W. Bush, the Republican nominee, and Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee (Massachusetts)

The format of last night's 90-minute presidential debate was different from the first presidential face-off.

Last night, a town forum was created where citizens of St. Louis, who claimed to still be undecided, were invited by Charlie Gibson to ask President Bush or John Kerry their question directly to the candidate.

The candidates were given a tall chair and table, a microphone, a pad of paper and pen.

This was the first time Bush and Kerry faced each other directly on economic and domestic issues.


Bert Decker's "No-Spin" Analysis

Communications expert Bert Decker gave us his "no-spin" analysis from last night's second Bush vs. Kerry Presidential Debate.

Decker's Analysis:

In as close a debate as this one was, it has to be taken in context. Read why, and see also why you are probably among the majority who are reacting to the above headline either positively, or negatively, and why ...

If you were truly undecided, you might call it a draw -- but there aren't many undecideds left. Let me assure you that once again if you were either for President Bush or for Senator Kerry -- he won. I received many reactions to my previous analysis of the debates, and, boy, do they show the passion of the person writing. So thanks, and keep the feedback coming.

In summary, Bush did so much better than in the first debate, he almost won by default.

He gave his supporters hope, where they were hopelessly discouraged after last week's debate.

He was much more forceful, gaining in strength and confidence as it went on.

The Town Hall format suited him -- he is said to be more of a people person than Kerry, and it showed (see Behavior below.)

Kerry did well, just not as well as in the first debate. It is actually remarkable that both of the candidates were so effective in that pressure packed and "fact" filled session.

Their spontaneity was impressive, their rhetoric was not (see below).

But I only counted one fumble each.

The specifics -- since behavior counts so much with these two, let's start here ...


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Bush Bounces Back


Behavior

* Bush was very energetic.

His voice and forward movement made you feel he really wanted to be there.

He was eager to respond to some of the Kerry assertions. The greatest contrast from Debate One was in the level of his energy -- he didn't have that same "deer in the headlights" look.

Kerry is not as energetic, which is not as apparent when you are behind a lectern. So he lost by contrast to the first debate. He moved, but not much. His eye contact was not as steady or as long with the audience.

His biggest behavioral drawback though is his serious look -- he smiled much more last week.


Reaction Shots

* Kerry was about the same in reacting as in the first debate, which was very good, looking thoughtfully as Bush spoke, writing his retorts rather than showing them.

Kerry had a couple of condescending, sardonic looks -- though rare.

But Bush was so much better than in the first debate that he wins this one by the contrast.

Bush didn't smirk. He looked respectful most of the time. He gave a couple of smiles -- but at the times when he would go to his childish smile in the first debate, here he went to his notes.

He did have some quick eye-blink problems, but they weren't very noticeable to most since the camera was not on the cutaways very long.


Connection

Both candidates connected well with the audience, but Bush gets the edge.

The President is more of a people person, and you can see that in his eye contact and movement.

He walked around more easily and seemed to enjoy himself much more than the last debate. He was eager to bounce into a question.

Yet, Senator Kerry was no slouch.

He moved, looked, and was even more effective in remembering names. He just didn't seem as interested in people -- which we could discern from his lack of a smile that shows that important touch of humanity and caring.


Kerry.standing.Bush.seated.jpg


Rhetoric

If you didn't like politics before, you would like it less now. Or you would have turned off the debate.

Both candidates were filled with rhetoric last night -- issues were mentioned and data thrown around. But who to believe?

Frankly, the real and final winner of this debate will probably be determined by the fact checkers and the media in the next few days -- by finding out who misinterpreted the truth or stretched the facts the most.

Both Bush and Kerry appeared guilty, and Kerry generalized the most -- talking around a lot of subjects.

In his answer to an abortion question Bush made a good rejoinder with his "I'm trying to decipher that one."


Issues

Some real differences were raised tonight.

Bush and Kerry clearly differ on taxes.

It remains to be seen if Kerry will have an advantage by taking a questioner's challenge and stating directly to the camera that he would not raise taxes.

Kerry did this, but credibility is stretched by the facts of his senatorial record (which Bush for the first time attacked effectively -- voted 96 times to raise taxes) with the need to raise funds for his plans. And Kerry said he had plans, but we didn't hear much of them.

Their differences on social issues, stem cell research, prescription drugs from Canada and abortion were clear -- but the facts that both of them used to support their positions were not.


Defensiveness

* Bush was defensive.

I suppose it is tough not to be when you are President and things are not going too well.

He was adequate but certainly not brilliant in defending his record. And he was actually very weak when asked to give three specific mistakes he had made and what he had done to correct them.

Kerry was effective in not responding directly to Bush's attacks on his Senate record -- albeit there were not that many attacks by Bush, and they were not that effective.


Bush.Kerry.Debate.2.jpg


Tone

In the end, the "winner" of a debate comes out of the memories of countless impulses in the mind and heart of the viewer.

So many perceptions are taken in, we "feel" who won on a more visceral level than a more cerebral level.

"People buy on emotion and justify with fact." That's why "our man" (or woman) won, whomever it might be.

Both President Bush and Senator Kerry did very well in this night's debate.

But Bush established the tone of energy and certainty and connection more than Kerry -- and that makes the difference (at least to an undecided, that is.)


Next Debate

* The third and final debate will be fascinating.

It will be worth watching, because the two candidates are pretty well even up in the debates, and so even in the polls that it's too close to call.

And this debate will be on domestic issues -- which have been somewhat lost in the rhetorical battles on Iraq.

People are interested in what effects them at home, and not just in the economic issues but the social issues.

Bush may have an edge in this one, because this debate should increase his confidence.

He has been stronger on setting a specific vision for his social agenda.

And Bush does not have to be quite as defensive as he is regarding topics associated with Iraq.

Stay tuned ...


About Bert Decker

Bert.Decker.photo.jpgLeadership Communications expert, Bert Decker has over fifty years experience in coaching, teaching, and communications.

Decker has coached business leaders like Charles Schwab, political leaders like Nancy Pelosi, athletes like Olympians Bonnie Blair and Tom Dolan, and 49ers All-Pro Brent Jones.

He has been the NBC TODAY Show's communications commentator for the Presidential Debates.

Decker is also an author and entrepreneur who has been featured in the New York Times, Business Week and 20/20.

One of his five best selling books include You've Got to Be Believed to Be Heard: Reach the First Brain to Communicate in Business and Life. About this book, Ken Blanchard, author of The Secret: What Great Leaders Know -- And Do said, "Bert Decker makes communicating come alive - a must read."

For further leadership communications skills and no-spin analysis, beginning with the last debate this Wedneday, October 13th, go to:

BertDecker.com

For the facts, go to:

FactCheck.org

The third and final presidential debate will take place on Wednesday, October 13, 9 pm ET, from Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona.

Here's to healthy, adventuresome, soulful and The Bert Decker Method of clear communications living!

~ Jennifer King

Posted by jck at October 9, 2004 12:25 AM






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