The setting: The University of Miami, Coral Gables Campus, Florida

The topic: Foreign Policy

The moderator: PBS The NewHour's Jim Lehrer

The nominees: President George W. Bush, the Republican nominee, and Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee

Last night during the first Bush Kerry Presidential Debate, communications expert Bert Decker gave a "no-spin" analysis of the first debate.

Issues

They were there, but they don't count too much in a debate like this. (People buy on emotion and justify with fact,) And particularly in this debate where the issue itself is not the arguable but the execution of the issue (Terrorism and the Iraq war - both don’t like them). Kerry attacked, and President Bush had to defend. Kerry's slight advantage, but this was not the key in this debate.

One Issue

For the first time 99% of us found out that there are real differences in their views on bi-lateral talks with North Korea. OK, they openly disagreed on that one. But do you think many people care, or even remember the next day. Not a factor.

We Care About Trust!

Who is going to lead us? Who do we trust most. The majority of people are already decided, and think their guy won. But this election will be decided by the undecideds.

And for them, trust is the key deciding factor, not the issues.

Behavior

Kerry had the advantage here. Actually, they both showed confidence in their behavior. They looked good in dress, they were forceful. And Kerry smiled - which was unusual. Kerry started out nervous in voice and manner, but finished strong. Bush acted less certain at the end.

Acting Presidential

They both did just fine. President Bush had one or two lip smirks, but he has improved his presence markedly in four years. He was often convicting.

John Kerry on the other hand was acting presidential too!

This was critical for him - we have seen him in shirt sleeves, flip-flopping as a wind surfer in commercials, and mostly looking dour and sour like a funeral director. Not tonight. He looked like he could be President, and this was critical for him to be elected.

Repetition

Bush repeated himself, which you could say was "on message" - or you could say he was just repetitive. For the most part it was effective in showing his consistency. Yet saying how he's "getting the job done" and "it's hard work" over and over is not too powerful.

Command of Facts

Bush had a lot of facts and details, and was articulate in presenting them. He overcame the knock that he was not very knowledgeable - he has not been called a "policy wonk" once. Well, he might not be called that now, but at least he was impressive data wise.

Character

What a nice softball question - put to both of them to comment on the other, it sounded like they were brothers. The friendly talk and smiles made it a toss-up, and it was a decided contrast to their attack commercials. Because of the love-fest Kerry had the advantage here. Kerry was perceived as inconsistence (potential character issue) and most people already think that Bush has strong beliefs and consistency (which of course they might not agree with.)

Reaction Shots

This debate showed extensive views of the candidates listening to each other - unusual for a debate.

If you watched CSPAN, it was continuous. The network feeds had a high percentage of shots that showed one talking, and the other listening. And we look at the listener as much as the talker in these cases, so their reactions have a visceral impact. Both did OK on this, as they knew the cameras would be on them. But Kerry gets the nod - he had a benign smile, with just a few pursed lips. On the other hand, Bush had more than several petulant reaction shots, which did not serve him well.

This debate was not fascinating (unless you love politics and behavior), but it was solid. It serves us to get to know how our leaders perform under pressure. We see how they act so we can trust them when the heats on and when we can't see them. We should feel good in that they both handled themselves pretty well for a long 90 minutes - with confidence and articulateness (except of course as noted above.)

But...

Kerry will get the bounce.

Newsweek's Meg Greenfield said, "We don't 'know' our presidents. We imagine them.

We watch them intermittently and from afar, inferring from only a relatively few gestures and reactions what kind of people they are and whether they should be in charge.

Much depends on our intuition and their ability at a handful of opportune moments to project qualities we admire and respect."

About Bert Decker

Leadership Communications expert, Bert Decker has over fifty years experience in coaching, teaching, and communications.

Decker has coached business leaders like Charles Schwab, political leaders like Nancy Pelosi, athletes like Olympians Bonnie Blair and Tom Dolan, and 49ers All-Pro Brent Jones.

He has been the NBC TODAY Show's communications commentator for the Presidential Debates.

Decker is also an author and entrepreneur who has been featured in the New York Times, Business Week and 20/20.

One of his five best selling books include You've Got to Be Believed to Be Heard: Reach the First Brain to Communicate in Business and Life. About this book, Ken Blanchard, author of The Secret: What Great Leaders Know -- And Do said, "Bert Decker makes communicating come alive - a must read."

For further no-spin analysis, beginning with the next debate on Tuesday, October 5th, go to:

Last night's debate in Miami was divided in six parts:

Part I : Securing America in a Post-9/11 World

Part II : Homeland Security

Part III : Winning the Peace in Iraq, the Case for War and Pre-war Diplomacy

Part IV : Pre-emption, North Korea and International Alliances

Part V : Character, Critical Issues and Russia

Part VI : Closing Statements

For the full text and audio version of the first Presidential Debate, go to:

PBS.org

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Posted by jck at October 1, 2004 11:30 AM